The hiring market may be stabilising in parts of the economy, but for young people trying to enter the workforce, it feels anything but steady.

Entry-level opportunities are shrinking, graduate programs are scaling down, and confidence is fragile.

Talent placement data has shown entry-level hiring has dropped by 19% compared to two years ago and on the ground, that decline is palpable.

“With unemployment in New Zealand at its highest level in years, it’s hard not to lose confidence,” says Shanelle Partridge, Youth Program Manager at our social enterprise Rise by Talent. “There just aren’t many entry-level roles being advertised. For rangatahi, it’s really hard to navigate right now.”

And the challenge isn’t limited to any particular demographic. It spans school leavers, graduates, and young people coming through skills-based programs.

“It’s hard for everybody at the moment,” Shanelle explains. “But it’s especially hard for diverse communities where that door wasn’t fully open before and it’s certainly not wider now.”

Is the first rung disappearing?

For decades, entry-level roles acted as the first rung of the career ladder. It was a time and space to learn, experiment, and build capability.

And today? That rung is thinning.

A combination of tight budgets, cautious hiring and AI-driven productivity gains has changed how organisations think about junior roles. Many are prioritising experienced hires who can “hit the ground running” rather than investing in capability building.

“There’s a shift happening,” Shanelle says. “We’re seeing grad programs being cut back, and more emphasis on skills-based hiring over formal qualifications. It’s not just about having a degree anymore. Employers are asking: can you think critically? Are you curious? Can you solve everyday business problems?”

That shift isn’t necessarily negative. But it does raise a bigger question: what happens when organisations expect “next-level” capability without creating the pathway to get there?

AI: Opportunity and anxiety

AI is definitely part of this conversation but not exactly in the ways the headlines suggest.

Young people are, in many cases, ahead of the curve on the tech front.

“Rangatahi are already AI-literate,” Shanelle says. “They’re using it to plan workflows, build bots, create presentations, tell their story. They’re not scared of it.”

In Rise programs, storytelling exercises often involve AI tools from day two.

“They’re experimenting confidently — often before organisations have even rolled out AI literacy internally.”

But literacy doesn’t automatically mean discernment.

“There’s still a huge education piece needed,” Shanelle adds. “Young people might recognise AI content quickly, but do they always apply a critical lens? That’s something we still need to build.”

And there’s a deeper layer for Māori and Pasifika communities.

“There’s fear around what AI means for our communities and entry-level roles. We’re slower to get AI literacy into those spaces and that’s something we need to address.”

The pressure to be “job-ready”

One of the most significant shifts in the early-career landscape is employer selectivity in a candidate-saturated market.

“With some job postings attracting 1,000 applications in a few days, organisations can be extremely picky,” Shanelle explains. “If you’re not one of the first CVs through the door, it’s hard to even get seen.”

High application volumes don’t necessarily translate to better opportunity either. Instead, they’re raising the bar for what “entry-level” means.

Organisations are asking for:

• Immediate contribution
• Strong interpersonal capability
• Commercial awareness
• Confidence and initiative

All without necessarily investing in structured development.

And for rangatahi Māori and Pasifika, additional pressures compound the challenge.

“Family is central,” Shanelle says. “If young people need to contribute to rent, mortgage or bills at home, they’ll take any job they can get. Tech might not feel accessible straight away if the door isn’t clearly open.”

That tension between economic necessity and long-term career aspiration is felt within these communities.

Why cutting entry-level roles is short-sighted

In our latest salary guide, we highlight a growing gap where short-term cost discipline risks long-term talent shortages.

This early-career squeeze is a clear example.

“If we don’t create those pathways now, who manages the business later?” Shanelle asks. “We need young people in the system so we can future-proof leadership.”

The solution doesn’t have to be large-scale graduate programs. In fact, in a tighter market, more agile approaches may be more effective.

“We’re seeing organisations rethink what entry-level looks like,” she says. “Project-based roles. Breaking down tasks within existing roles. Asking: is there something here that a junior person could own?”

Some Auckland-based employers are now reviewing every vacancy and asking a simple question:

“Is there any part of this role that could be carved out for entry-level talent?”

If yes, they create space for it with intention and to proactively future-proof their workforces.

So, what can businesses do now?

Practical starting points include:

• Identifying project-based entry opportunities
• Earmarking a small number of roles each year for junior talent
• Partnering with organisations like Rise to align training with industry need
• Reviewing roles to carve out structured development tasks

“We created Rise to bridge that lag between what industry needs and what education delivers,” Shanelle says. “Tech changes fast. Waiting three or four years for a pipeline to come through uni doesn’t work anymore.”

And bridging that gap responsibly is now critical.

The long game

The early-career squeeze isn’t just an issue isolated to just young people trying to get their foot in the door. It’s now a workforce strategy issue.

When organisations reduce entry-level intake, they may ease short-term cost pressure but they also narrow their future leadership funnel.

And when the market tightens again — as history suggests it will — that pipeline gap becomes expensive.

Young people aren’t lacking ambition or adaptability. In many cases, they’re more technologically fluent and agile than the environments they’re trying to enter.

The question now is whether businesses are willing to meet them halfway.

Explore how capability gaps are reshaping hiring in our More than Money Salary Guide, including insights into early-career trends and long-term workforce planning.